Video Poker Variance
Why two games with the same return can feel completely different — estimate session swings, standard deviation, and bankroll pressure.
Approximation for independent single-line hands. Multi-hand games have correlated results and need a covariance model.
| Game profile | RTP | Variance | Std dev | Read | Practical meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6 Jacks or Better | 99.54% | 19.514676 | 4.417542 | Lower | Clean baseline for classic bankroll modeling. |
| 8/5 Bonus Poker | 99.17% | 20.904082 | 4.572095 | Low–moderate | Slightly swingier — bonus quads carry more weight. |
| Full Pay Deuces Wild | 100.76% | 25.679180 | 5.067466 | Moderate | Rare positive-expectation full-pay game at optimal play; wild cards concentrate payouts and lift swings. |
| Double Bonus | 99.11% | 28.547130 | 5.342951 | Moderate–high | More return tied to bonus quads. |
| 9/6 Double Double Bonus | 98.98% | 41.984981 | 6.479583 | High | Big bonus quads create far wider swings than Jacks or Better. |
Reference profiles, not universal values for every title using a similar name. Variance/SD assume variant-specific optimal strategy; confirm the exact paytable before relying on an estimate.
What Variance Means
Variance measures how far real results can swing around the theoretical average. RTP tells you the long-run return; variance tells you how noisy the path is before that long run becomes visible. The distinction matters because many variants load part of their return into rare, high-paying hands.
A game with a large royal flush or bonus four-of-a-kind payout can have a strong theoretical return and still produce long losing stretches before those rare hands appear. That gap between correct play and short-term results is exactly what variance describes.
Session SD ≈ √(variance per hand) × bet per hand × √(hands played)Expected result
The average theoretical win or loss from RTP and total wagered. It is the centre point results swing around, not a prediction of any single session.
Standard deviation
The square root of variance, scaled to your bet and hand count. A higher figure means results spread further from the expected result — often more telling than RTP alone.
Bankroll pressure
Compares the likely swing with available funds. If one standard deviation is large next to the bankroll, normal swings can feel severe even on a strong paytable.
Variant profile
Jacks or Better is a lower-volatility baseline. Double Double Bonus is far swingier because more value sits in premium quads. Similar RTP does not mean a similar ride.
RTP vs Variance
These answer different questions. RTP asks "what is the long-run average return?" Variance asks "how unstable is the path around that average?" A player can pick a high-RTP game and still take large short-term losses if the variance is high. For a broader reference on return metrics before variance, see the video poker RTP guide.
| Metric | Question it answers | Paytable? | Strategy? | Best use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTP | Return over a large sample? | Yes | Yes | Comparing theoretical game quality. |
| House Edge | Theoretical cost before rewards? | Yes | Yes | Average loss over volume. |
| Variance | How spread out are results? | Yes | Indirectly | Volatility and bankroll pressure. |
| Std deviation | How large is a typical swing? | Yes | Indirectly | Session ranges and risk bands. |
The practical point: a low house edge does not make a game smooth. A player can make correct decisions and still lose a session because rare high-paying events may not appear in a small sample. Variance is the model that explains that gap.
How to Use Variance for Bankroll Planning
Variance is not a guarantee, but it helps you plan. If a session's standard deviation is $140 and the expected loss is $5, a result of minus or plus $100 is unremarkable. If the bankroll is only $100, ordinary swings can exhaust it even on a strong game.
The one- and two-standard-deviation ranges are approximate risk bands, easiest to read over larger hand counts where the distribution settles. Over very small samples, a single premium hand can dominate the whole result.
Lower-variance profile
Jacks or Better is the clean baseline. Its return is not concentrated as heavily in rare bonus quads, so the ride is steadier — though royal flush frequency still matters.
Higher-variance profile
Double Double Bonus shifts more value into premium four-of-a-kind categories. It can produce larger wins when those land, but longer dry spells are part of the same structure, so it should not be compared with Jacks or Better by RTP alone.
Single-line limitation
This page models independent single-line hands. Multi-hand video poker is more complex because hands share the same initial deal, so a proper model needs covariance, not just variance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is video poker variance?
A measure of how widely results swing around the theoretical average. Higher variance means larger short-term swings and more bankroll pressure.
Is variance the same as RTP?
No. RTP measures long-run average return; variance measures how unstable results are around that average. Two games can share an RTP yet swing very differently.
What is standard deviation here?
The square root of variance. It estimates the size of normal session swings from the game profile, bet size, and hand volume.
Why is Double Double Bonus swingier than Jacks or Better?
It loads more value into rare premium four-of-a-kind hands, so the game swings more sharply between those payouts.
Can variance predict whether I will win?
No. It does not predict the next result — only how wide the distribution of possible results is around the expected average.
Use Variance Before Judging a Session
A losing session is not automatic proof of bad strategy, and a winning one is not proof of a good game. RTP explains the average; variance explains the swing. Both are needed before reading anything into short-term results.